As West African leaders' seven-day ultimatum to the military in Niger to reinstate President Mohamed Bazoum comes to an end, both sides face crucial decisions.
On Sunday evening, the ECOWAS regional bloc, led by neighbouring Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, said the junta had one week to restore constitutional order or face possible violence.
The coup plotters have already been sanctioned and Nigeria's electricity supply and borders have been cut, leaving goods stalled and the landlocked country losing access to ports.
But what might happen when the deadline expires, when political, diplomatic and military tensions rise?
1) The deadline is extended
One possibility is that the ECOWAS leaders will extend the deadline.
There is a risk that this will be perceived as a relegation, but heads of state can save face by saying that diplomatic efforts are advanced and they want to give them more time.
The problem at the moment is that ECOWAS' mediation efforts have failed. A delegation sent to Niger on Thursday returned within hours and appeared to have little to show for it.
Meanwhile, the junta has escalated its rhetoric against the West and ECOWAS. He announced the severing of diplomatic ties with Nigeria, Togo, the United States and France, and announced military deals with France that allowed the former colonial power to station about 1,500 troops there.
President Bazoum, who is in military custody, used harsh language in a Washington Post article. Referring to himself as a "hostage," he called on the United States and the entire international community to help restore constitutional order.
On Friday, the United States said it would stop providing some aid to the Nigerian government but would continue to provide humanitarian and food aid.
2) I agree to a transition program
To try to calm the situation and find a balance, the junta and ECOWAS can agree on a timetable for a return to democratic government.
This could include the release of President Bazoum and other political prisoners to continue talks and perhaps buy more time. This was the main demand of those who condemned the coup in Africa and elsewhere.
The West African bloc has already approved democratic transitions in Niger's Sahel neighbours Mali and Burkina Faso, which have been taken over by the military in recent years.
However, negotiations have been fraught with difficulties, election dates have been constantly postponed and there are still no guarantees that the transfer of power will actually take place.
Another model is provided by Sudan
, which established a joint civilian-military government in 2019 to pave the way for post-coup democracy. But the country's collapse in a bitter conflict between rival military commanders serves as a cautionary tale.
3) Military intervention
The West African leaders did not say that force would definitely be used if President Bazoum was not reinstated but left it open as a possibility.
Nigerian officials have described it as a "last resort". President Tinubu said there could be a military intervention "to enforce compliance of the military junta in Niger should they remain recalcitrant".
Ecowas has used military force to restore constitutional order in the past, for example in The Gambia in 2017 when Yahya Jammeh refused to step down after losing an election.
But calculating whether to go ahead this time would be far more complex.
Firstly, Niger is geographically the largest country in West Africa, while The Gambia is a tiny sliver of land surrounded by Senegal and the Atlantic Ocean, so sending troops in would be a whole different prospect.
Secondly, regional power Nigeria, which is leading the charge to restore President Bazoum, is facing a host of security challenges at home, so sending a significant portion of the army to Niger would be something of a gamble.
Thirdly, both Mali and Burkina Faso have said that military intervention in Niger would be seen as a "declaration of war" and they would go to defend their fellow coup leaders.
So it risks snowballing into a full-scale regional war, especially if the Niger population resists foreign intervention. Although it is impossible to know how they would react.
Nigeria and Niger share many historical and ethnic ties, with people on both sides speaking the same language so this could make some Nigerian troops reluctant to fight if it came to that.
Countries like Algeria, Niger's neighbour to the north, China and Russia have asked for restraint and the continued use of dialogue to douse tension.
However, after a three-day meeting in Nigeria's capital, Abuja, Ecowas defence chiefs say they have drawn up a detailed plan for military intervention for the regional leaders to consider.
Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Senegal and Benin have all said they are willing to send troops into Niger if Ecowas decides to do so.
Nigeria alone has about 135,000 active troops, according to the Global Fire Power Index, while Niger has about 10,000 but that certainly doesn't mean an invasion would be easy.
A peaceful solution is no doubt preferable for all sides but Ecowas is keen to show its resolve as it has failed to prevent a spate of coups in the region in the last three years.